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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 20

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Green Bay Packers 9

What Actually Happened

(1:42) 16-W.Reichard 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-19-B.Thorson.

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.12 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model