4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 12 at the 12

Las Vegas Raiders 24 – Miami Dolphins 13

What Actually Happened

(2:38) 14-M.Gay 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.71 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 12, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 22, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model