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Miami Dolphins

0-1 HC Jeff Hafley
@
LV Home

Las Vegas Raiders

1-0 HC Klint Kubliak
Sunday 2026-09-13 · 16:25 ET Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

MIA
49.6%
LV
50.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: -0.230 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • MIA defense: +0.057 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • MIA offense: -0.018 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Kirk Cousins (LV): -0.046 EPA/dropback in prior starts

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

MIA 23 16–30
–
LV 25 18–32
Projected margin: LV by 2 Projected total: 48

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 1

MIA

No players on the report.

LV

Brock Bowers TE Out Knee

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 13
–
LV 27

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:38 TD LV (1:38) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 18-J.Bech for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – LV 6
  • Q2 10:26 FG LV (10:26) 14-M.Gay 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. MIA 0 – LV 10
  • Q2 04:12 FG MIA (4:12) 47-R.Patterson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion. ** Injury Update: MIA-46-T.Addington has returned to the game. MIA 3 – LV 10
  • Q2 01:12 TD LV (1:12) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 2-A.Jeanty for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 3 – LV 16
  • Q2 00:05 FG MIA (:05) 47-R.Patterson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion. MIA 6 – LV 17
  • Q3 12:52 TD MIA (12:52) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis scrambles right end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 12 – LV 17
  • Q3 10:06 TD LV (10:06) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 2-A.Jeanty for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 13 – LV 23
  • Q3 02:38 FG LV (2:38) 14-M.Gay 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole. MIA 13 – LV 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 9 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 53%

    (10:38) 48-B.Pinion punts 37 yards to LV 7, Center-46-T.Addington, fair catch by 23-D.Laube.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 LV 4th & 1 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 76%

    (4:29) 34-C.Heyward up the middle to MIA 34 for no gain (40-W.Gay; 23-Z.Anderson). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 34-C.Heyward up the middle to MIA 33 for 1 yard (10-J.Rodriguez; 3-C.Johnson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIA 4th & 3 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (14:22) 48-B.Pinion punts 59 yards to LV 10, Center-46-T.Addington. 19-M.Benson to LV 33 for 23 yards (46-T.Addington).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LV 4th & 2 at the 29
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 84%

    (10:26) 14-M.Gay 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIA 4th & 2 at the 23
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 91%

    (4:12) 47-R.Patterson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion. ** Injury Update: MIA-46-T.Addington has returned to the game.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LV 4th & 12 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 97%

    (2:38) 14-M.Gay 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIA 4th & 15 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 91%

    (:11) 47-R.Patterson 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LV 4th & 2 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (14:15) 6-A.Cole punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-47-A.Ward, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIA 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (12:32) 48-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to LV 33, Center-46-T.Addington. 19-M.Benson to LV 45 for 12 yards (46-T.Addington).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIA 4th & 18 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 33%

    (10:30) 48-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to LV 12, Center-46-T.Addington, fair catch by 23-D.Laube.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LV 4th & 12 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (6:10) 6-A.Cole punts 72 yards to MIA 6, Center-47-A.Ward. 6-M.Washington to MIA 23 for 17 yards (93-P.Johnson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIA 4th & 12 at the 46 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 48%

    (4:04) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete short right to 21-K.Coleman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LV 4th & 15 at the 58 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (3:40) 6-A.Cole punts 55 yards to MIA 3, impetus ends at MIA 1, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LV-81-D.Young.

    See the full breakdown →