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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 15 at the 23

Miami Dolphins 13 – Las Vegas Raiders 27

What Actually Happened

(:11) 47-R.Patterson 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.45 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 23, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 33, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model