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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 61

Las Vegas Raiders 27 – Miami Dolphins 13

What Actually Happened

(14:15) 6-A.Cole punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-47-A.Ward, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.07 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 61, worth -3.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 20, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP