4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 80

Miami Dolphins 13 – Las Vegas Raiders 27

What Actually Happened

(12:32) 48-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to LV 33, Center-46-T.Addington. 19-M.Benson to LV 45 for 12 yards (46-T.Addington).

The Three Options

GO -2.39 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.25 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 80, worth -4.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 37, worth -2.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model