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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 12 at the 78

Las Vegas Raiders 27 – Miami Dolphins 13

What Actually Happened

(6:10) 6-A.Cole punts 72 yards to MIA 6, Center-47-A.Ward. 6-M.Washington to MIA 23 for 17 yards (93-P.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -2.69 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.06 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 78, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 35, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model