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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 15 at the 58

Las Vegas Raiders 27 – Miami Dolphins 13

What Actually Happened

(3:40) 6-A.Cole punts 55 yards to MIA 3, impetus ends at MIA 1, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LV-81-D.Young.

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +1.28 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 58, worth -2.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 18, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model