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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 69

Miami Dolphins 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(14:22) 48-B.Pinion punts 59 yards to LV 10, Center-46-T.Addington. 19-M.Benson to LV 33 for 23 yards (46-T.Addington).

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.34 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 69, worth -3.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 27, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP