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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 37

Washington Commanders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(11:29) 19-D.Stevens 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.83 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 37, worth -2.30 EP
KICK -0.26 EP
What Happened
  • 65% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.21 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 46, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model