Win Probability
Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- PHI offense: +0.006 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
- PHI defense: -0.076 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
- WAS defense: +0.166 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- WAS offense: +0.018 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
- Jalen Hurts (PHI): +0.097 EPA/dropback in prior starts
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 1
WAS
No players on the report.
Pulled fresh for 2026 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 11:29 FG WAS (11:29) 19-D.Stevens 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way. WAS 3 – PHI 0
- Q2 14:17 TD PHI (14:17) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 88-D.Goedert for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 3 – PHI 6
- Q2 06:35 TD PHI (6:35) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 13-D.Wicks for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 3 – PHI 13
- Q2 01:56 TD WAS (1:56) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 9 – PHI 14
- Q3 00:48 FG PHI (:48) 4-J.Elliott 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann. WAS 9 – PHI 17
- Q4 10:04 TD WAS (10:04) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle to 3-S.Diggs for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on WAS-3-S.Diggs, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. WAS 15 – PHI 17
- Q4 06:12 TD PHI (6:12) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 88-D.Goedert for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 16 – PHI 23
- Q4 01:05 TD WAS (1:05) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 14-A.Williams for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. WAS 22 – PHI 24
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 WAS 4th & 7 at the 37Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 65%
(11:29) 19-D.Stevens 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 PHI 4th & 8 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 27%
(8:43) 10-B.Mann punts 46 yards to WAS 6, Center-41-R.Underwood, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 WAS 4th & 10 at the 94Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(7:42) 10-T.Way punts 54 yards to PHI 40, Center-69-T.Ott. 85-B.Covey to PHI 39 for -1 yards (18-T.Owens).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 WAS 4th & 1 at the 69Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EPp(convert) 72%
(2:49) 10-T.Way punts 60 yards to PHI 9, Center-69-T.Ott. 85-B.Covey to PHI 24 for 15 yards (56-K.Medrano).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 WAS 4th & 9 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(13:08) 10-T.Way punts 51 yards to PHI 16, Center-69-T.Ott. 85-B.Covey pushed ob at PHI 27 for 11 yards (58-J.Magee).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 PHI 4th & 6 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(12:11) 10-B.Mann punts 62 yards to WAS 7, Center-41-R.Underwood. 83-J.Lane to WAS 16 for 9 yards (80-D.Cooper).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 WAS 4th & 18 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(8:57) 10-T.Way punts 55 yards to PHI 26, Center-69-T.Ott. 85-B.Covey to PHI 38 for 12 yards (18-T.Owens).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 WAS 4th & 1 at the 32Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 76%
(4:41) (Shotgun) 22-J.Croskey-Merritt up the middle to PHI 28 for 4 yards (90-J.Davis; 53-Z.Baun).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 PHI 4th & 2 at the 53Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EPp(convert) 62% p(FG) 25%
(:45) 10-B.Mann punts 51 yards to WAS 2, Center-41-R.Underwood, downed by PHI-7-K.Ringo.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 PHI 4th & 2 at the 66Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EPp(convert) 64%
(13:00) 10-B.Mann punts 44 yards to WAS 22, Center-41-R.Underwood. 83-J.Lane to WAS 41 for 19 yards (54-J.Trotter).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 WAS 4th & 4 at the 53Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 25%
(11:20) 10-T.Way punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 PHI 4th & 6 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(9:55) 10-B.Mann punts 43 yards to WAS 33, Center-41-R.Underwood. 83-J.Lane to WAS 44 for 11 yards (42-S.Mondon; 28-W.Shipley).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 WAS 4th & 9 at the 36Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 68%
(6:51) 19-D.Stevens 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
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Q3 PHI 4th & 16 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(5:19) 10-B.Mann punts 51 yards to WAS 11, Center-41-R.Underwood, out of bounds.
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Q3 WAS 4th & 6 at the 85Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(3:52) 10-T.Way punts 45 yards to PHI 40, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 85-B.Covey.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 PHI 4th & 3 at the 17Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EPp(convert) 51% p(FG) 94%
(:48) 4-J.Elliott 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 WAS 4th & 2 at the 10 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54% p(FG) 97%
(2:04) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 17-T.McLaurin to PHI 4 for 6 yards (29-M.Epps).
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