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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 10

Washington Commanders 16 – Philadelphia Eagles 24

What Actually Happened

(2:04) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short right to 17-T.McLaurin to PHI 4 for 6 yards (29-M.Epps).

The Three Options

GO +2.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +4.62 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 10, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model