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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 52

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(8:43) 10-B.Mann punts 46 yards to WAS 6, Center-41-R.Underwood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.30 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 52, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -1.26 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model