Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 68

Miami Dolphins 6 – San Francisco 49ers 21

(10:58) 48-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to SF 29, Center-46-T.Addington, out of bounds. ** Injury Update: SF-25-J.Jones has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.96 EP
58% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model