Win Probability
Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- SF offense: +0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
- SF defense: +0.035 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
- MIA defense: +0.057 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
- QB edge to SF: Brock Purdy (SF) +0.156 vs Malik Willis (MIA) -0.020 EPA/dropback
- MIA offense: -0.018 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
- SF on 3 more days rest than MIA
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 2
MIA
SF
Pulled fresh for 2026 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 04:20 TD SF (4:20) 23-C.McCaffrey right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – SF 6
- Q2 10:00 FG MIA (10:00) 47-R.Patterson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion. MIA 3 – SF 7
- Q2 05:29 TD SF (5:29) 13-B.Purdy scrambles left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 3 – SF 13
- Q2 00:02 FG MIA (:02) 47-R.Patterson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion. MIA 6 – SF 14
- Q3 13:13 TD SF (13:13) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 85-G.Kittle for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – SF 20
- Q3 05:51 TD SF (5:51) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 44-K.Juszczyk for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – SF 27
- Q3 03:13 TD SF (3:13) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – SF 34
- Q4 02:41 TD MIA (2:41) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass deep right to 84-R.Miller for 77 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 12 – SF 35
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 MIA 4th & 7 at the 33Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 75%
(10:32) 47-R.Patterson 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 MIA 4th & 1 at the 31Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 79%
(:49) 2-M.Willis up the middle to SF 29 for 2 yards (96-J.Thompson).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 MIA 4th & 10 at the 10Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%
(10:00) 47-R.Patterson 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 MIA 4th & 5 at the 5Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%
(:02) 47-R.Patterson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 MIA 4th & 7 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(10:58) 48-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to SF 29, Center-46-T.Addington, out of bounds. ** Injury Update: SF-25-J.Jones has returned to the game.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 MIA 4th & 15 at the 61Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.71 EPp(convert) 29%
(3:55) (Punt formation) 48-B.Pinion FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIA 27, and recovers at MIA 28.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 MIA 4th & 7 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(1:41) 48-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to SF 22, Center-46-T.Addington. 4-J.Cowing to MIA 42 for 36 yards (48-B.Pinion). PENALTY on SF-33-S.Neal, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 22.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 MIA 4th & 20 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(7:07) 48-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to SF 35, Center-46-T.Addington. 4-J.Cowing to SF 36 for 1 yard (35-R.Taylor).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 SF 4th & 10 at the 64 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(4:17) 15-C.Waitman punts 47 yards to MIA 17, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by SF-9-B.Willis.
See the full breakdown →
