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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 33

Miami Dolphins 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:32) 47-R.Patterson 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.17 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.91 EP
KICK +0.30 EP
What Happened
  • 75% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.25 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model