Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 20 at the 78

Miami Dolphins 6 – San Francisco 49ers 35

(7:07) 48-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to SF 35, Center-46-T.Addington. 4-J.Cowing to SF 36 for 1 yard (35-R.Taylor).

The Three Options

GO -2.74 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.82 EP
73% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model