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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 64

San Francisco 49ers 35 – Miami Dolphins 6

What Actually Happened

(4:17) 15-C.Waitman punts 47 yards to MIA 17, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by SF-9-B.Willis.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.88 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 64, worth -2.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 22, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model