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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q1
Miami Dolphins
4th & 1 at the 31
Miami Dolphins 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7
What Actually Happened
(:49) 2-M.Willis up the middle to SF 29 for 2 yards (96-J.Thompson).
The Three Options
GO
+2.04 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.75 EP
- 31% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.70 EP
KICK
+0.53 EP
- 79% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.30 EP
- 21% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT
-0.32 EP
- San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
