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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 22

New York Giants 0 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(7:46) 19-J.Winston right guard to LA 21 for 1 yard (99-A.Donald; 0-B.Young). (Virtual Measurement). Los Angeles Rams challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)

The Three Options

GO +2.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.43 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 22, worth -0.76 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
  • 92% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 32, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model