4TH&DATA
EN ES
Home
NYG Away

New York Giants

1-1 HC John Harbaugh
@
LA Home

Los Angeles Rams

1-1 HC Sean McVay
Monday 2026-09-21 · 20:15 ET SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 6.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

NYG
32.1%
LA
67.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: +0.179 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Matthew Stafford (LA): +0.181 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NYG offense: +0.042 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • NYG defense: +0.022 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • LA on 3 more days rest than NYG

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

NYG 23 16–30
–
LA 28 21–35
Projected margin: LA by 5 Projected total: 51

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 2

NYG

Micah McFadden LB Questionable Neck
Deonte Banks CB Questionable Calf

LA

Kamren Kinchens S Out Hamstring
Jordan Whittington WR Doubtful Quadricep
Puka Nacua WR Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 6
–
LA 28

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 00:19 TD LA (:19) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 17-D.Adams for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – LA 6
  • Q2 11:13 TD LA (11:13) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 23-K.Williams for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – LA 13
  • Q2 00:29 FG NYG (:29) 34-D.Zvada 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. NYG 3 – LA 14
  • Q3 06:25 TD LA (6:25) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 3 – LA 20
  • Q3 03:55 FG NYG (3:55) 34-D.Zvada 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. NYG 6 – LA 21
  • Q4 09:02 TD LA (9:02) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 18-T.Ferguson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – LA 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 8 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 55%

    (11:20) 15-J.Stout punts 33 yards to LA 10, Center-58-B.Mann, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 LA 4th & 5 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (9:58) 42-E.Evans punts 38 yards to NYG 47, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 87-B.Berrios.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NYG 4th & 19 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 55%

    (5:43) 15-J.Stout punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-58-B.Mann, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 9 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (14:48) 15-J.Stout punts 61 yards to LA 11, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-X.Smith to LA 22 for 11 yards (46-Z.Barnes).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 22
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 92%

    (7:46) 19-J.Winston right guard to LA 21 for 1 yard (99-A.Donald; 0-B.Young). (Virtual Measurement). Los Angeles Rams challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 8 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 38%

    (3:21) 15-J.Stout punts 42 yards to LA 8, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-X.Smith to LA 6 for -2 yards (88-M.Fields).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 5 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (:29) 34-D.Zvada 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LA 4th & 10 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (13:22) 42-E.Evans punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYG 4th & 12 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:07) 15-J.Stout punts 58 yards to LA 10, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-X.Smith to LA 14 for 4 yards (28-E.Campbell).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYG 4th & 9 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 78%

    (3:55) 34-D.Zvada 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LA 4th & 13 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 55%

    (:07) 42-E.Evans punts 38 yards to NYG 5, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 87-B.Berrios.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYG 4th & 10 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (14:47) 15-J.Stout punts 78 yards to LA 17, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-X.Smith to LA 36 for 19 yards (31-N.Jones; 46-Z.Barnes).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYG 4th & 10 at the 35
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 74%

    (6:17) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete deep right to 88-M.Fields (1-E.Forbes). Penalty on NYG-88-M.Fields, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.

    See the full breakdown →