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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 6

New York Giants 0 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(:29) 34-D.Zvada 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +2.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.34 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 6, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +2.34 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model