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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 67

Los Angeles Rams 14 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(13:22) 42-E.Evans punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.47 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 67, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 25, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model