Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 12 at the 68

New York Giants 3 – Los Angeles Rams 14

(10:07) 15-J.Stout punts 58 yards to LA 10, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-X.Smith to LA 14 for 4 yards (28-E.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.24 EP
66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 68, worth -3.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model