Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 95

New York Giants 6 – Los Angeles Rams 21

(14:47) 15-J.Stout punts 78 yards to LA 17, Center-58-B.Mann. 19-X.Smith to LA 36 for 19 yards (31-N.Jones; 46-Z.Barnes).

The Three Options

GO -3.29 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.49 EP
60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 95, worth -5.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model