4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 2

Cleveland Browns 3 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 44-H.Fannin for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CAR-7-T.Moehrig, Defensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO +2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.23 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 2, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model