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Carolina Panthers

1-2 HC Dave Canales
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Cleveland Browns

2-1 HC Todd Monken
Sunday 2026-09-27 · 13:00 ET Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

CAR
57.2%
CLE
42.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.246 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • CLE defense: -0.107 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Deshaun Watson (CLE): -0.105 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CAR offense: -0.022 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

CAR 23 16–30
–
CLE 21 14–28
Projected margin: CAR by 2 Projected total: 44

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 3

CAR

Nick Scott S Out Rib
Devin Lloyd LB Out Calf
Claudin Cherelus LB Out Shoulder
Xavier Legette WR Questionable Knee
Jalen Coker WR Questionable Ankle

CLE

Teven Jenkins G Out Back
Grant Delpit S Questionable Shoulder
Tyson Campbell CB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 18
–
CLE 21

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 05:48 FG CLE (5:48) 25-A.Szmyt 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CAR 0 – CLE 3
  • Q2 01:43 TD CLE (1:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 44-H.Fannin for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CAR-7-T.Moehrig, Defensive Holding, declined. CAR 0 – CLE 9
  • Q2 00:30 FG CAR (:30) 10-R.Fitzgerald 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. CAR 3 – CLE 10
  • Q3 13:26 FG CAR (13:26) 10-R.Fitzgerald 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. CAR 6 – CLE 10
  • Q3 03:21 FG CAR (3:21) 10-R.Fitzgerald 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. CAR 9 – CLE 10
  • Q4 11:45 FG CAR (11:45) 10-R.Fitzgerald 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. CAR 12 – CLE 10
  • Q4 07:34 FG CLE (7:34) 25-A.Szmyt 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CAR 12 – CLE 13
  • Q4 04:29 TD CAR (4:29) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 13-J.Metchie for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 18 – CLE 13
  • Q4 01:55 TD CLE (1:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 44-H.Fannin for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR-8-Ja.Horn was injured during the play. CAR 18 – CLE 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 17 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (12:10) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to CLE 15, Center-44-J.Jansen. 1-K.Concepcion to CLE 18 for 3 yards (45-M.Njongmeta; 46-J.Kuwatch). PENALTY on CLE-35-T.Pride, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 8 yards, enforced at CLE 16.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CLE 4th & 3 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (8:41) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 39 yards to CAR 19, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CAR 4th & 2 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (6:00) 6-S.Martin punts 47 yards to CLE 9, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-29-A.Evans.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CLE 4th & 3 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 59%

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 1-K.Concepcion to CAR 34 for 4 yards (29-A.Evans).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CLE 4th & 14 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 45%

    (12:03) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 27 yards to CAR 16, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CAR 4th & 3 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 45%

    (8:38) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at CAR 47 for -10 yards (94-M.Graham).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CLE 4th & 4 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 80%

    (5:48) 25-A.Szmyt 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CAR 4th & 1 at the 60
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (3:40) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left to 82-T.Tremble.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CLE 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 99%

    (1:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 44-H.Fannin for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CAR-7-T.Moehrig, Defensive Holding, declined.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CAR 4th & 17 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 94%

    (:30) 10-R.Fitzgerald 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CAR 4th & 2 at the 22
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 90%

    (13:26) 10-R.Fitzgerald 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CLE 4th & 13 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (11:09) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 62 yards to CAR 12, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 83-D.Moore to CAR 20 for 8 yards (11-M.Corley).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CAR 4th & 14 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 40%

    (7:42) 6-S.Martin punts 40 yards to CLE 5, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-83-D.Moore.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CLE 4th & 5 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (6:12) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 62 yards to CAR 28, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 83-D.Moore to CAR 34 for 6 yards (24-D.Thomas).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CAR 4th & 7 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 67%

    (3:21) 10-R.Fitzgerald 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CLE 4th & 9 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:18) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 53 yards to CAR 13, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CAR 4th & 6 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 92%

    (11:45) 10-R.Fitzgerald 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CLE 4th & 9 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 83%

    (7:34) 25-A.Szmyt 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CAR 4th & 16 at the 84 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.06 EP
    p(convert) 29%

    (1:27) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 88-D.Waller to CAR 24 for 8 yards (26-M.Harden; 49-C.Schwesinger).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CLE 4th & 1 at the 15 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.27 EP
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 95%

    (1:05) 10-Q.Judkins up the middle to CAR 17 for -2 yards (91-P.Jones).

    See the full breakdown →