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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 14 at the 45

Carolina Panthers 6 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(7:42) 6-S.Martin punts 40 yards to CLE 5, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-83-D.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.92 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 45, worth -2.39 EP
KICK -1.11 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model