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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 56

Carolina Panthers 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(6:00) 6-S.Martin punts 47 yards to CLE 9, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-29-A.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.22 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 56, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 17, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP