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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 13 at the 90

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(10:15) 6-J.Hekker punts 42 yards to TB 48, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-31-D.Dallas.

The Three Options

GO -3.24 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.90 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 90, worth -5.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 47, worth -2.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model