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Minnesota Vikings

3-0 HC Kevin O'Connell
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

0-3 HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2026-09-27 · 16:05 ET Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

MIN
45.3%
TB
54.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • MIN offense: -0.129 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • MIN defense: -0.164 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Baker Mayfield (TB): -0.100 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • TB defense: +0.088 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • TB offense: -0.020 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

MIN 22 15–29
–
TB 23 16–30
Projected margin: TB by 1 Projected total: 45

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 3

MIN

Nick Samac C Out Knee
Brett Thorson P Out Hamstring

TB

Rueben Bain Jr. LB Out Groin
Josiah Trotter LB Out Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 23
–
TB 16

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:24 FG MIN (10:24) 16-W.Reichard 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker. MIN 3 – TB 0
  • Q1 09:00 TD MIN (9:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to MIN 14, Center-86-E.Deckers. 4-M.Price for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIN, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. MIN 9 – TB 0
  • Q1 06:50 TD TB (6:50) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 17-T.Hurst for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 10 – TB 6
  • Q2 05:35 FG TB (5:35) 4-C.McLaughlin 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. MIN 10 – TB 10
  • Q2 04:17 TD MIN (4:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 3-J.Addison for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN [50-V.Vea]. MIN 16 – TB 10
  • Q3 07:16 FG TB (7:16) 4-C.McLaughlin 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. MIN 17 – TB 13
  • Q4 09:06 FG TB (9:06) 4-C.McLaughlin 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. MIN 17 – TB 16
  • Q4 03:15 FG MIN (3:15) 16-W.Reichard 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker. MIN 20 – TB 16
  • Q4 00:37 FG MIN (:37) 16-W.Reichard 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker. MIN 23 – TB 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 9 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 68%

    (10:24) 16-W.Reichard 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 TB 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (9:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to MIN 14, Center-86-E.Deckers. 4-M.Price for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIN, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 MIN 4th & 8 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:34) 6-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to TB 9, Center-42-A.DePaola. 15-T.Johnson pushed ob at TB 25 for 16 yards (45-M.Bredeson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 TB 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60%

    (1:16) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to MIN 19, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 4-M.Price.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIN 4th & 12 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:56) 6-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to TB 40, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 15-T.Johnson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TB 4th & 4 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (12:19) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to MIN 13, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 4-M.Price.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIN 4th & 13 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (10:15) 6-J.Hekker punts 42 yards to TB 48, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-31-D.Dallas.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TB 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 97%

    (5:35) 4-C.McLaughlin 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TB 4th & 10 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (1:46) 9-R.Dixon punts 54 yards to MIN 20, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 4-M.Price.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIN 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (1:03) 6-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to TB 23, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 15-T.Johnson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TB 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (:06) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to MIN 15, Center-86-E.Deckers. 4-M.Price ran ob at MIN 25 for 10 yards (29-M.Killebrew).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TB 4th & 9 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (12:29) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to MIN 20, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 4-M.Price.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIN 4th & 7 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (10:30) 6-J.Hekker punts 63 yards to TB 0, Center-42-A.DePaola. 15-T.Johnson to TB 14 for 14 yards (23-J.Pierre).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TB 4th & 5 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (9:38) 9-R.Dixon punts 59 yards to MIN 22, Center-86-E.Deckers. 4-M.Price to MIN 32 for 10 yards (84-B.Sharp).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TB 4th & 8 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 92%

    (7:16) 4-C.McLaughlin 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIN 4th & 9 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (6:09) 6-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to TB 24, Center-42-A.DePaola. 15-T.Johnson to TB 34 for 10 yards (41-J.Golday; 29-Jac.Thomas).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIN 4th & 7 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:27) 6-J.Hekker punts 42 yards to TB 16, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 15-T.Johnson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TB 4th & 4 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (14:23) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to MIN 25, Center-86-E.Deckers. 4-M.Price to MIN 25 for no gain (19-K.Johnson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIN 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (13:30) 6-J.Hekker punts 36 yards to TB 34, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 15-T.Johnson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TB 4th & 7 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 68%

    (9:06) 4-C.McLaughlin 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIN 4th & 1 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 70%

    (6:08) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones up the middle to TB 32 for 3 yards (22-K.Scott).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIN 4th & 16 at the 38 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 63%

    (3:15) 16-W.Reichard 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TB 4th & 13 at the 61 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 29%

    (1:54) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 1-K.Gainwell INTERCEPTED by 43-A.Van Ginkel [51-B.Cashman] at TB 41. 43-A.Van Ginkel to TB 41 for no gain (1-K.Gainwell). TB-6-B.Mayfield was injured during the play.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIN 4th & 6 at the 25 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 87%

    (:37) 16-W.Reichard 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TB 4th & 1 at the 60 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (:08) (Shotgun) 10-J.Daniels pass deep right INTERCEPTED by 2-I.Rodgers at MIN 3. 2-I.Rodgers to MIN 3 for no gain (17-T.Hurst).

    See the full breakdown →