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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 58

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(12:29) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to MIN 20, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 4-M.Price.

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.95 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 58, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 18, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model