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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 63

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(10:30) 6-J.Hekker punts 63 yards to TB 0, Center-42-A.DePaola. 15-T.Johnson to TB 14 for 14 yards (23-J.Pierre).

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.24 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model