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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 81

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(9:38) 9-R.Dixon punts 59 yards to MIN 22, Center-86-E.Deckers. 4-M.Price to MIN 32 for 10 yards (84-B.Sharp).

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.00 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 81, worth -4.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 38, worth -1.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model