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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 58

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

What Actually Happened

(1:27) 6-J.Hekker punts 42 yards to TB 16, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 15-T.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.68 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 58, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model