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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 56

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Chicago Bears 20

What Actually Happened

(3:22) 10-B.Mann punts 50 yards to CHI 6, Center-41-R.Underwood. 14-K.Raymond to CHI 15 for 9 yards (59-C.Campbell; 80-D.Cooper). CHI-14-K.Raymond was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.71 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 56, worth -3.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 17, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model