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Philadelphia Eagles

2-1 HC Nick Sirianni
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Chicago Bears

2-1 HC Ben Johnson
Monday 2026-09-28 · 20:15 ET Soldier Field, Chicago US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

PHI
47.2%
CHI
52.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • Case Keenum (CHI): -0.188 EPA/dropback in prior starts (CHI starting Case Keenum in place of Caleb Williams)
  • CHI offense: +0.058 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • CHI defense: +0.055 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • PHI offense: +0.006 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

PHI 22 15–29
–
CHI 25 18–32
Projected margin: CHI by 3 Projected total: 47

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 3

PHI

Dallas Goedert TE Out Knee
Fred Johnson T Out Knee
Marquise Brown WR Out Ankle
Jonathan Greenard LB Questionable Pectoral

CHI

Noah Sewell LB Out Achilles
Caleb Williams QB Out Hamstring
Shemar Turner DE Out Knee
Tyson Bagent QB Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 7
–
CHI 27

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:56 TD CHI (8:56) (Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass short middle to 10-L.Burden for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – CHI 6
  • Q2 01:56 FG CHI (1:56) 8-C.Santos 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. PHI 0 – CHI 10
  • Q2 00:01 TD PHI (:01) (No Huddle) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – CHI 10
  • Q3 10:21 FG CHI (10:21) 8-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. PHI 7 – CHI 13
  • Q3 05:55 TD CHI (5:55) 11-C.Keenum pass short middle to 14-K.Raymond for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 7 – CHI 19
  • Q4 07:21 TD CHI (7:21) 11-C.Keenum up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 7 – CHI 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 1 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 78%

    (10:52) 11-C.Keenum pass short left to 87-S.Roush to PHI 16 for 16 yards (53-Z.Baun).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 PHI 4th & 12 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 45%

    (6:15) 10-B.Mann punts 30 yards to CHI 16, Center-41-R.Underwood, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CHI 4th & 6 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 35%

    (2:02) 19-T.Taylor punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-46-S.Daly, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CHI 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 99%

    (14:02) (Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass incomplete short left to 10-L.Burden (27-Q.Mitchell).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CHI 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

    (1:56) 8-C.Santos 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 PHI 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (13:34) 10-B.Mann punts 43 yards to CHI 32, Center-41-R.Underwood, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CHI 4th & 5 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 81%

    (10:21) 8-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 PHI 4th & 12 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (8:47) 10-B.Mann punts 44 yards to CHI 23, Center-41-R.Underwood. 14-K.Raymond to CHI 29 for 6 yards (83-J.Mundt).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 PHI 4th & 6 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (3:22) 10-B.Mann punts 50 yards to CHI 6, Center-41-R.Underwood. 14-K.Raymond to CHI 15 for 9 yards (59-C.Campbell; 80-D.Cooper). CHI-14-K.Raymond was injured during the play.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CHI 4th & 12 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (2:45) 19-T.Taylor punts 55 yards to PHI 32, Center-46-S.Daly. 85-B.Covey pushed ob at CHI 47 for 21 yards (87-S.Roush). PENALTY on PHI-7-K.Ringo, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 40.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 PHI 4th & 5 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 45%

    (:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left intended for 6-D.Smith INTERCEPTED by 53-T.Edwards at CHI 42. 53-T.Edwards to CHI 42 for no gain (9-M.Lemon).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CHI 4th & 1 at the 34 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 74%

    (2:00) 65-L.Newman reported in as eligible. 4-D.Swift left tackle to PHI 19 for 15 yards (2-T.Woolen).

    See the full breakdown →