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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 46

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Chicago Bears 20

What Actually Happened

(:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left intended for 6-D.Smith INTERCEPTED by 53-T.Edwards at CHI 42. 53-T.Edwards to CHI 42 for no gain (9-M.Lemon).

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.02 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 46, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -0.82 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 13, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model