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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 34

Chicago Bears 27 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 65-L.Newman reported in as eligible. 4-D.Swift left tackle to PHI 19 for 15 yards (2-T.Woolen).

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +2.68 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 34, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
  • 74% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 44, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model