4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 32

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(12:34) 17-B.Aubrey 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.06 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 32, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.55 EP
What Happened
  • 79% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 42, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model