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Sunday 2026-10-04 · 13:00
Reliant Stadium, Houston US
🏟 Dome
Spread 2.5
O/U 47.5
Win Probability
Dome
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- DAL offense: +0.081 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
- HOU defense: -0.144 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- DAL defense: +0.179 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- Dak Prescott (DAL): +0.161 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- HOU offense: -0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
Predicted Final Score
DAL
22
–
HOU
23
Projected margin: HOU by 1
Projected total: 45
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 4
No injury report available yet for the 2026 season.
Actual Result
Not played yet.