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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 71

Houston Texans 10 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(10:30) 38-K.Kroeger punts 56 yards to DAL 15, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 31 for 16 yards (56-J.Hill).

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.95 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 71, worth -3.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 29, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model