4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 11 at the 44

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(5:02) 17-B.Aubrey 62 yard field goal is BLOCKED (51-W.Anderson), Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.51 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 44, worth -2.49 EP
KICK -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • 53% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.34 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.91 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model