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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 16 at the 47

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(:30) 17-B.Aubrey 65 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +2.24 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 47, worth -1.58 EP
KICK +0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 13, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model