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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 14 at the 69

Houston Texans 23 – Dallas Cowboys 27

What Actually Happened

(8:51) 38-K.Kroeger punts 52 yards to DAL 17, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 9-K.Turpin pushed ob at DAL 31 for 14 yards (87-F.Moreau).

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.21 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 69, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 27, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model