Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 65

Dallas Cowboys 27 – Houston Texans 23

(7:08) 5-B.Anger punts 60 yards to HOU 5, Center-44-T.Sieg. 13-J.Noel to HOU 13 for 8 yards (30-H.Luepke; 89-B.Spann-Ford).

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.75 EP
57% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 65, worth -3.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model