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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 68

Dallas Cowboys 27 – Houston Texans 30

What Actually Happened

(1:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 87-J.Ferguson to DAL 39 for 7 yards (2-C.Bullock).

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.17 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 68, worth -2.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 26, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model