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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 21

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(5:13) 17-B.Aubrey 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.70 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.07 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 31, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model