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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 17 at the 33

Baltimore Ravens 6 – Atlanta Falcons 14

What Actually Happened

(:03) 33-T.Loop 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +2.72 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 33, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +2.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 43, worth -0.19 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model