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Baltimore Ravens

4-1 HC Jesse Minter
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Atlanta Falcons

2-3 HC Raheem Morris
Sunday 2026-10-11 · 20:20 ET Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

BAL
39.4%
ATL
60.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • BAL offense: +0.052 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • Tyler Huntley (BAL): -0.037 EPA/dropback in prior starts (BAL starting Tyler Huntley in place of Lamar Jackson)
  • BAL defense: -0.040 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • ATL offense: +0.018 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

BAL 23 16–30
–
ATL 24 17–31
Projected margin: ATL by 1 Projected total: 47

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 5

BAL

Trey Hendrickson LB Out Finger
Lamar Jackson QB Out Ankle
Cam Jurgens C Out Concussion
Marlon Humphrey CB Questionable Hamstring
Andrew Vorhees G Questionable Foot
Zay Flowers WR Questionable Foot

ATL

Yasir Abdullah LB Out Hamstring
Jake Matthews T Questionable Groin
Za'Darius Smith DE Questionable Concussion
Samson Ebukam DE Questionable Hamstring
Divine Deablo LB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 30
–
ATL 23

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:30 FG BAL (10:30) 33-T.Loop 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley. BAL 3 – ATL 0
  • Q1 08:14 TD ATL (8:14) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews to BAL 34 for 9 yards (0-D.Deablo, 29-S.Brown). FUMBLES (29-S.Brown), RECOVERED by ATL-3-J.Bates at BAL 36. 3-J.Bates for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 3 – ATL 6
  • Q2 08:08 FG BAL (8:08) 33-T.Loop 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley. BAL 6 – ATL 7
  • Q2 02:29 TD ATL (2:29) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short middle to 8-K.Pitts for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – ATL 13
  • Q2 00:03 FG BAL (:03) 33-T.Loop 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley. BAL 9 – ATL 14
  • Q3 09:55 FG ATL (9:55) 6-N.Folk 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey. BAL 9 – ATL 17
  • Q3 07:01 TD BAL (7:01) 5-T.Huntley pass short left to 22-D.Henry for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 15 – ATL 17
  • Q4 08:06 FG ATL (8:06) 6-N.Folk 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey. BAL 15 – ATL 20
  • Q4 02:35 FG ATL (2:35) 6-N.Folk 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey. BAL 15 – ATL 23
  • Q4 00:44 TD BAL (:44) (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short left to 81-D.Walker for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 21 – ATL 23
  • Q5 03:01 TD BAL (3:01) 5-T.Huntley up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 29 – ATL 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 99%

    (10:30) 33-T.Loop 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 ATL 4th & 6 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (9:41) 16-J.Bailey punts 56 yards to BAL 23, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 10-L.Wester.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 BAL 4th & 5 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 40%

    (4:53) 30-R.Eckley punts 37 yards to ATL 12, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 14-O.Zaccheaus.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 ATL 4th & 2 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (2:39) 16-J.Bailey punts 46 yards to BAL 14, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 10-L.Wester.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BAL 4th & 8 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (12:30) 30-R.Eckley punts 54 yards to ATL 6, Center-46-N.Moore. 14-O.Zaccheaus to ATL 18 for 12 yards (46-N.Moore). PENALTY on ATL-28-M.Ford, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at ATL 6.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ATL 4th & 5 at the 92
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (10:48) 16-J.Bailey punts 56 yards to BAL 36, Center-49-L.McCullough. 10-L.Wester to BAL 47 for 11 yards (28-M.Ford; 29-S.Brown).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BAL 4th & 7 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 77%

    (8:08) 33-T.Loop 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BAL 4th & 17 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 77%

    (:03) 33-T.Loop 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 ATL 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (9:55) 6-N.Folk 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 ATL 4th & 2 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 65%

    (3:47) 62-C.Levin reported in as eligible. 9-M.Penix pass short left to 89-C.Woerner to BAL 41 for -2 yards (9-Z.Young) [44-M.Humphrey]. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 62-C.Levin reported in as eligible. 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short left to 89-C.Woerner [44-M.Humphrey]. ** Injury Update: BAL-14-K.Hamilton has returned to the game.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 BAL 4th & 11 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:38) 30-R.Eckley punts 42 yards to ATL 20, Center-46-N.Moore. 17-Z.Branch to ATL 37 for 17 yards (39-K.Jackson). PENALTY on ATL-29-S.Brown, Unnecessary Roughness, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 20.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ATL 4th & 9 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 95%

    (8:06) 6-N.Folk 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BAL 4th & 4 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (6:30) 30-R.Eckley punts 44 yards to ATL 18, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 17-Z.Branch.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ATL 4th & 5 at the 30 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 82%

    (2:35) 6-N.Folk 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ATL 4th & 6 at the 55 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (:08) 16-J.Bailey punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-49-L.McCullough, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →